2026 Housing Forecast by Realtor.com

Realtor.com just released its 2026 Housing Forecast, and for the first time in a while, the national market is finally starting to feel more balanced. After a few intense years, we are heading into a phase that feels more predictable and more buyer friendly while still supporting healthy values for sellers.

Here are the highlights and why they matter, especially here in Fairfield County where local trends can differ from the national averages in a big way.

1. Home prices are expected to rise by about 2.2%

This is calm, steady growth. Nothing overheated. Nothing alarming.

For buyers, this makes planning easier and reduces the fear of getting priced out overnight. For sellers, values continue to trend upward, just at a more sustainable pace.

2. Mortgage rates may ease to around 6.3%

A small decrease can have a big impact on affordability. Even a few tenths of a point can change what buyers qualify for and how competitive they feel when shopping.

2026 may finally give buyers a little breathing room after years of rate volatility.

3. Monthly payments are projected to drop by about 1.3%

With slower price growth and slightly lower rates, the typical monthly mortgage payment becomes more manageable.

Realtor.com expects home payments to fall back under the 30% affordability threshold for the first time since 2022. That is a meaningful shift.

4. Inventory could grow by roughly 8.9%

More homes on the market means more choices and more balance. This is good news for buyers who have felt squeezed for options.

But this is where local variation really matters. Some markets will see a noticeable increase in listings. Others will stay tight. Fairfield County tends to remain competitive because demand from NYC buyers stays strong.

5. Home sales may increase by about 1.7%

Sales activity is expected to rise modestly, but overall, the market becomes more predictable. This is not a boom and not a decline. It is a reset.

Homes that are priced well and marketed well will continue to sell. Homes that skip preparation will take longer.

The Most Important Takeaway

National data is helpful, but real estate is always local. Fairfield County has its own pace, its own demand patterns, and its own pricing dynamics. NYC relocation trends, school districts, commuter access, waterfront desirability, and neighborhood-level inventory all shape what actually happens here.

The national forecast shows a move toward balance, but how that looks locally can vary significantly.

That is why personalized guidance matters more than headlines.

Thinking About Moving In 2026?

Whether you are planning a relocation, upsizing, downsizing, or buying your first home, I am here to help you make sense of what these trends mean in your specific town and price point.

If you or someone you know is considering a move, reach out. Even a quick conversation can help you make a smarter, more confident plan.

I am always happy to share what I am seeing on the ground in Fairfield County and help you navigate your next step with clarity.